Bitcoin’s recent crash has highlighted persistent resistance levels that could push the leading cryptocurrency toward $100,000 if bulls fail to regain control. Following Friday’s sharp reversal, the market is showing signs of fatigue, with technical indicators suggesting the path of least resistance is downward.
BTC Faces Third Failure at Historic Trendline
Bitcoin’s inability to maintain gains above a critical trendline drawn from the 2017 and 2021 highs marks the third major failure at this resistance level. Analysts have repeatedly warned that this trendline acts as a key barrier, and Friday’s crash reaffirmed its significance.
Long wicks on the monthly candlestick charts for July, August, and October indicate repeated attempts by bulls to hold higher levels, only to face rejection. This pattern aligns with the adage: “Once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, three times is a pattern,” signaling that the trendline has become a decisive battleground for BTC price action.
MACD Signals Weakening Momentum
Technical indicators reinforce the bearish outlook. On the monthly chart, the MACD histogram, while still positive, is notably lower than during the December-January rally when BTC initially broke above $100,000. This decline suggests weakening upward momentum and indicates that bulls are losing strength as the trendline continues to cap gains.
Daily chart readings echo the monthly sentiment. Both the standard MACD (12, 26, 9) and longer-term MACD (50, 100, 9) histograms show negative readings, pointing to potential further declines. The longer-duration MACD, which smooths short-term market noise, reinforces the probability that BTC’s short-term trajectory is downward.
Expanding Channel Resistance Highlights Downside Risk
BTC’s daily chart also shows a sharp reversal from the upper boundary of the expanding channel. This structure has acted as a ceiling for price movements, and Friday’s crash underscores its role in shaping the market’s near-term direction. If BTC continues to fail at this resistance, traders should anticipate a move toward lower support levels, potentially testing sub-$100,000 zones.
The 200-day simple moving average, currently near $107,000, may offer intermediate support. However, a sustained inability to reclaim the trendline could result in further downside, challenging bulls to maintain confidence in the current recovery wave.
Support and Resistance Levels to Watch
Immediate resistance for BTC is around $116,000, with the next barrier near $121,800. A decisive close above $121,800 is crucial to invalidate the series of lower highs and reverse the current bearish momentum. Until such a break occurs, technical trends suggest that BTC could remain vulnerable to further retracements.
On the downside, support levels are clear. The first major support sits at $107,000, coinciding with the 200-day moving average. Below that, a move toward $100,000 is plausible, representing a test of the lower boundary of the expanding triangle pattern. These levels are critical for traders looking to gauge whether BTC’s decline will stabilize or continue toward deeper retracements.
Implications for Traders and Investors
The repeated failure to break above the historic trendline carries several implications for market participants. Short-term traders may see heightened volatility as BTC approaches critical support, while long-term investors should be cautious about entering new positions until the market confirms a break above $121,800.
Risk management strategies, including stop-loss placement and position sizing, will be essential for navigating the current environment. Traders may also monitor MACD signals and channel boundaries for clues about potential trend reversals or continuation patterns.
Long-Term Outlook Remains Uncertain
While technical indicators point to a possible decline toward $100,000, it is important to consider broader market factors. Macro conditions, including interest rate policy, institutional adoption, and regulatory developments, can all influence BTC’s trajectory.
Historically, Bitcoin has shown resilience even after sharp corrections. Should the cryptocurrency reclaim trendline support and break above $121,800, the bearish outlook could quickly reverse, potentially resuming a new bullish cycle. Until then, the focus remains on key resistance and support levels, with technical signals indicating that caution may be warranted.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s third failed attempt to hold gains above the 2017–21 trendline emphasizes the challenges bulls face in the current market cycle. With the MACD showing weakening momentum and daily candles signaling a potential downturn, BTC may test support near $100,000. Traders should closely monitor trendline resistance at $121,800, as a decisive break above this level is critical to overturn the bearish sentiment and resume upward momentum. In the near term, technical and structural factors suggest that Bitcoin is likely to remain under pressure, highlighting the importance of strategic risk management in navigating this volatile market.
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