Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade under pressure, falling to $103,528 earlier today as global macroeconomic uncertainty weighs on investor sentiment. The decline marks an extension of the recent bearish streak that has erased gains made during the first half of October.
Fresh on-chain data from Binance and CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin is entering a critical transition phase in its price cycle. This shift suggests a possible structural correction, even as long-term fundamentals remain intact.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain, Bitcoin’s Cycle Phase Score — a metric combining market trend and short-term momentum (Z-score) — has turned negative. This transition aligns with the cryptocurrency’s drop from $124,000 to $107,000 within 24 hours earlier this week, signaling a weakening trend.
What the Bitcoin Cycle Phase Score Indicates
The Cycle Phase Score is a composite indicator designed to track Bitcoin’s market rhythm. Positive readings typically reflect an uptrend with strong buying momentum, while negative values suggest cooling sentiment and potential corrections.
Arab Chain’s recent analysis highlights that the negative Cycle Score marks the end of Bitcoin’s bullish impulse seen earlier this month. The trend_signal has now hit -1, confirming that BTC has fallen below its 200-day moving average — a key indicator used by traders to distinguish between bullish and bearish phases.
With Bitcoin currently struggling to reclaim the $106,780 resistance, the analyst warns that the market could remain under pressure until this level is decisively breached. “The decline reflects a rebalancing phase, not necessarily the start of a long-term downtrend,” Arab Chain explained, emphasizing that such pullbacks often occur after prolonged rallies.
Short-Term Weakness Confirmed by Momentum Indicators
In addition to the negative Cycle Score, Bitcoin’s Z-score has also turned red, indicating that the asset is trading significantly below its short-term average. This further supports the case for short-term selling pressure dominating the market.
Arab Chain noted that the recent decline represents a temporary rebalancing phase rather than a full-scale reversal. Bitcoin’s rapid surge in early October, when it rallied from below $100,000 to over $120,000, created overheated conditions that now appear to be correcting naturally.
If Bitcoin manages to stabilize above $105,000 in the coming sessions, the analyst expects the Cycle Phase Score to recover, potentially re-entering the positive region and signaling renewed upward momentum.
Market Fear Grows as Bitcoin Hovers Near $100,000
As Bitcoin trades around the mid-$100,000 range, market sentiment remains cautious. Investors fear a potential drop below the psychological $100,000 mark, which could trigger additional panic selling.
Supporting this view, on-chain activity has recently declined below its 365-day average, showing a slowdown in network usage and transaction volume — both of which tend to mirror shifts in investor confidence.
Meanwhile, prominent analyst CryptoBirb suggested that the current Bitcoin bull cycle may be nearing its conclusion, estimating that BTC is 99.3% through its ongoing cycle. This aligns with historical trends where prolonged rallies give way to extended consolidation or correction phases.
Institutional Buying Remains a Positive Signal
Despite growing short-term bearish sentiment, there are encouraging signs from the institutional side. Data shows that companies and funds added roughly 176,000 BTC to their holdings during Q3 2025, signaling continued confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential.
Such accumulation often serves as a stabilizing factor, especially when retail sentiment weakens. Historically, institutional inflows tend to precede recovery phases as large investors position themselves for the next leg of the market cycle.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $105,484, down 5.1% in the past 24 hours. While volatility remains elevated, analysts emphasize that structural corrections are common during multi-month uptrends and may pave the way for a healthier base for future growth.
Key Levels to Watch Ahead
Technical analysts identify $106,780 as the immediate resistance to overcome for Bitcoin to regain positive momentum. A sustained close above this level could invalidate the current bearish structure and reestablish BTC’s mid-term uptrend.
Conversely, failure to hold the $105,000 support may expose the market to further downside toward $100,000 or $97,500, levels that previously attracted strong buying interest.
Until clearer signs of accumulation appear on-chain, traders are expected to remain cautious. Analysts recommend watching trading volume, whale activity, and the Cycle Phase Score for early indications of a potential reversal.
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